Exponential growth[ edit ] Kurzweil characterizes evolution throughout all time as progressing through six epochs, each one building on the one before. Exponential growth is deceptive, nearly flat at first until it hits what Kurzweil calls "the knee in the curve" then rises almost vertically. As an example of super-exponential growth Kurzweil cites the computer chip business. The overall budget for the whole industry increases over time, since the fruits of exponential growth make it an attractive investment; meanwhile the additional budget fuels more innovation which makes the industry grow even faster, effectively an example of "double" exponential growth.
Brief Note to the Reader If you are taking the time to read this website you are one of a small and fortunate group of humans today who question what our universal, biological, and technological history of accelerating change may mean for the future and larger purpose of humanity.
It takes educational privilege, curiosity, insight, courage, and mental freedom to engage in this investigation. Given our current knowledge of the laws of physics and chemistry, and our record of accelerating performance gains in miniaturizing electronic systems, it presently appears that this accelerating trend will continue vernor vinge singularity essay help far as we can see into our extraordinary future.
Accelerating computation, communication, and nanotechnologies have today become the most dynamic systems in modern society.
Faced with the daunting prospect of further acceleration in their capacity, most people presently either deny the possibility, or ignore the phenomenon entirely. We believe that the evidence is strongly against the first response, and that the second response is unwise.
The philosopher-technologist Archimedes said: Let us choose wisely. Learning about accelerating change from a broad and multidisciplinary perspective is a major purpose of this website.
Outreach, education, research, and selective advocacy of communities and technologies of accelerating change is a major purpose of our affiliated nonprofit organization, the Acceleration Studies Foundation.
I encourage you to visit that website, attend our occasional conferences, join our listserves, and add your voice to the community. While the genesis of these ideas began in written form over a century ago see our Brief History of Intellectual Discussion of Accelerating Change even today few people presently investigate, or critique universal and global trends in accelerating change broadly, carefully, or systematically.
Those who do so commonly call themselves futuriststranshumanistsand systems theorists.
Marcel Proust has said "the real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes. Thank you for taking the time to carefully consider these fascinating, speculative, and at times disturbing ideas.
Grossly, this generalized rate of evolutionary development is at least seven million times faster than the speed of thought in biological systems the speed of an action potential and synaptic diffusion in a human brain.
· Best Answer: "The Singularity", or the "Technological Singularity" is a term that was popularized by Vernor Vinge (see reference 1 below). It is a term from science fiction, considered by many to be in the realm of "possible, and maybe probable"rutadeltambor.com › Science & Mathematics › Physics. · Vernor Vinge proposes an interesting -- and potentially terrifying -- prediction in his essay titled "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era." He asserts that mankind will develop a superhuman intelligence before rutadeltambor.com · VERNOR VINGE, who wraps up this issue, first used the term singularity to refer to the advent of superhuman intelligence while on a panel at the annual conference of the Association for the rutadeltambor.com
In an utterly surprising state of affairs, every new computing system over the last century of technological development has managed to be consistently more miniaturized, more resource efficient per standard computation, however definedmore human autonomous in the replication of its complexity, again however defined and more biologically-inspired having features of evolutionary development or organization increasingly similar to our own than the last.
Physicists presently see no near-term limit to accelerating computational capacity and efficiency trends, other than the Planck-scale limit of fundamental universal structure itself. As a result, the continued acceleration of local technological intelligence is very likely to be the central driver and determinant of the modern era.
It has been postulated by some that local environmental events after this point must also be "future-incomprehensible" to existing humanity, though we disagree.
In this fascinating process, technology and biology are becoming ever more seamlessly interconnected and interdependent. As Brian Arthur of the Santa Fe Institute describes, technology is becoming organic, and nature is becoming technologic. Even our minds and intentions, in a process that William Bainbridge of the National Science Foundation calls "personality capture," are becoming incrementally encoded into our increasingly intelligent technological infrastructure, so that it may better anticipate our needs, and serve us with increasing responsiveness and effectiveness with each passing year.
While the human animal is scarcely different with each new generation, our "houses" become exponentially smarter, as well as increasingly natural extensions of ourselves.
Ultimately, as few discussing these issues currently realize, "What is the singularity? As we develop increasingly powerful types of human-surpassing technological intelligence in coming decades, and as each successive generation becomes more seamlessly integrated with human actors, actively engaged in solving key human problems, it will become appropriate to ask not what, but "Who is the singularity?
We are an independent community of scholars, professionals and lay futurists systematically exploring science, technology, business, global, political, social, and personal dialogs in accelerating change. Please join us in considering, critiquing, and prioritizing what may be the single most important issue of the human era.
The Prediction Wall With increasing anxiety, many of our best thinkers have seen a looming "Prediction Wall" emerge in recent decades. There is a growing inability of human minds to credibly imagine our onrushing future, a future that must apparently include greater-than-human technological sophistication and intelligence.
At the same time, we now admit to living in a present populated by growing numbers of increasingly interconnected technological systems that no one human being understands. The Millenial generation assumes the normality of living in a world of complex, rapidly improving, and yet amazingly stable technological systems, erected like vast beehives or termite mounds, systems maintained and incrementally improved by large swarms of partially-aware human beings, each of which has only a very limited conceptualization of the full potentialities and inherent developmental trajectory of the new technological environment that is emerging.
But perhaps most astonishingly, we are coming to realize that even our traditional seers, the authors of speculative fiction, have failed us in recent decades.
· All of Vernor Vinge's audio interviews on the podcast The Future And You (in which he describes the singularity and his other expectations of the future) Reason Interview of Vernor Vinge A podcast interview with Vinge by Glenn Reynolds and Helen rutadeltambor.com · Vernor Steffen Vinge (pronounced VIN-jee, rhyming with 'stingy') (born February 10, ) is a mathematician, computer scientist and science fiction author who is best known for his Hugo award-winning novel A Fire Upon the Deep, and for his essay The Technological Singularity, in which he rutadeltambor.com Vernor Vinge is a mathematician and science fiction author who is well known for many Hugo Award-winning novels and novellas* and his essay “The Coming Technological Singularity”, in which he argues that the creation of superhuman artificial intelligence will mark the point at which “the human era will be ended”, such that no rutadeltambor.com Vernor Steffen Vinge (Listeni/ˈvɜːrnər ˈvɪndʒiː/; born October 2, ) is a retired San Diego State University (SDSU) Professor of Mathematics, computer scientist, and .
Welcome to my web home page -- a collection of my various essays on technology topics, comedy, my software, my popular amateur photography sub-site, and of course, an exercise in rutadeltambor.comsism.
· Vernor Vinge (screen name “vv”) and Ray Kurzweil (screen name “RayKurzweil”) recently discussed The Singularity — their idea that superhuman machine intelligence will soon exceed human intelligence — in an online chat room co-produced by Analog Science Fiction and Fact and Asimov’s Science Fiction magazine on rutadeltambor.com